First tier cities sell area fell 70%, the lowest in 5 years – Sohu news www.semm.com

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First tier cities sell area fell 70%, the lowest in 5 years – Sohu news 2016 January, the land market continued in 2015 differentiation phenomenon. On the one hand, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other hot second tier cities high premium plots frequent, and after a series of refresh the city price record; on the other hand, from the overall point of view, the national land market turnover scale is significantly reduced, some cities year-on-year decline even more than 50%. Monitoring data of market institutions CRIC show that in 2016 January, the national 300 cities operating land turnover of 91 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year; turnover of construction area of 26 million 150 thousand square meters, down 45% year on year, the new low in January for nearly five years. CRIC Research Center analyst Yang Kewei believes that in January the land market overall cooling, mainly by three aspects: the first is the industry cycle, the chain fell in the traditional off-season; second is the demand of cooling down, after the heat of the second half of 2015, has reached a high price. And after the effective release of market demand in 2015, followed by lack of strength; in addition, the most important policy is strictly controlled; in January, the Ministry of land made a clear statement again, 2016 will focus on inventory, for residential land policy will have "hold pressure"". According to the type of city, the volume of the first tier cities fell the most obvious, January land transfer area fell by 70%, the same as the lowest in the past 5 years. Yang Kewei believes that the decline in land turnover in the first tier cities is the general trend. According to CRIC arrangement, in 2015, the first tier cities planned to sell 34 million 170 thousand square meters of operating land, but ultimately only 20 million square meters of turnover. Although the Ministry of land has repeatedly asked the city to increase land supply in short supply, but due to the high cost of demolition, built-up area land reserve nearly exhausted, public facilities carrying capacity is insufficient, land circulation restrictions and other factors, the land transfer volume of the first tier cities is still difficult to rise. Recently announced the reduction of the total amount of land sold in Shenzhen, is one of the typical. However, in the overall supply and demand of land shrinkage in the background, in January, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other second tier city has several cases of high priced land transactions more eye-catching. Yang Kewei said that the biggest cause of the emergence of the king in January is the first unit to the second tier city, city hot transaction based support, and between the city and first-tier cities inventory pressure differentiation, land supply reduction, it is further exacerbated the land for the second city. "Hangzhou, Nanjing as the second tier cities in the leader, unit price Wang refresh, is the inevitable trend". Yang Kewei believes that things are rare, the price of the king frequency is mainly because of the difficult to copy the relevant land scarcity, population aggregation, business, medical, green, public transport and other indicators need to be among the best. "Under the policy environment for limited", land transactions downward trend will continue, in 2016 the land market size or accelerated shrinking." Yang Kewei said, on the one hand, the two class market will seize a market share, revitalize the stock of land enterprises; on the other hand, the Ministry of land and encourage enterprises to lease land, encourage a long-term lease, rent, lease with the transferor let.

一线城市出让面积下滑七成 创5年来最低-搜狐新闻  2016年1月份,土地市场延续2015年的分化现象。一方面,杭州、南京等热点二线城市高溢价地块频出,并且接连刷新城市单价地王纪录;另一方面,从整体来看,全国土地市场的成交规模却显著缩减,部分城市同比跌幅甚至超过50%。   市场机构CRIC的监测数据显示,2016年1月份,全国300城市经营性土地成交金额910亿元,同比大跌23%;成交建筑面积2615万平方米,同比骤降45%,为近五年的1月份新低。   克而瑞研究中心分析人士杨科伟认为,1月土地市场整体降温,主要受到三方面影响:首先是行业周期,传统淡季导致环比大跌;其次是需求热度降温,经历了2015年下半年的高热之后,地价已达高位。且市场需求在2015年有效释放以后,后继乏力;除此以外,最重要的还是政策严控,1月份国土部再一次明确表态,2016年仍将聚焦去库存,对于住宅用地政策将“有保有压”。   分城市类型来看,一线城市成交量下跌最为明显,1月份土地出让面积同比下滑七成,同样为近5年以来最低。杨科伟认为,一线城市土地成交量下跌已是大势所趋。据CRIC整理,2015年一线城市计划出让经营性土地3417万平方米,但最终仅成交了2000万平方米。虽然国土部一再要求供不应求的城市加大土地供应,但受到拆迁成本高、建成区土地储备几近枯竭、公共设施承载力不足、土地流转受限等因素影响,一线城市的土地出让量仍难抬头。近期宣布降低土地出让总量的深圳市,更是个中典型。   不过,在整体土地供求缩量的背景下,1月份杭州、南京等二线城市陆续成交的几宗高价地块较为抢眼。   杨科伟说,1月份二线城市单价地王涌现的最大成因,首先是基于城市火热的成交支持,而城市之间的库存压力分化,以及一线城市的土地供应缩减,更是进一步加剧了二线城市的土地争夺。“杭州、南京作为二线城市中的翘楚,单价地王的刷新,是趋势上的必然”。   杨科伟认为,物以稀为贵,单价地王频出主要还是因为相关地块难以复制的稀缺性,人口聚集、商业、医疗,绿地、公共交通等指标都需要名列前茅。   “在‘有供有限’的政策环境之下,土地成交下跌之势仍将持续,2016年土地市场规模或将加速缩量。”杨科伟表示,一方面,二级市场将“抢占”一级市场份额,盘活企业存量土地;另一方面,国土部鼓励企业租赁土地,鼓励采取长期租赁、先租后让、租让结合等出让方式,降低企业用地成本,这样势必会抢夺部分商办地产的需求。   总体而言,虽然土地市场整体偏冷,但克而瑞方面认为,随着1月份“降首付”新政出台之后,部分二线热点城市将迎来最大政策刺激效应。由于一线城市影响最小,再加上多数三四线效果不及预期,必将使得企业、资金涌向热点二线城市,在销售市场向好的情况下,热点二线城市的销售-投资机制将被率先激活。   在杨科伟看来,得益于存量大幅降低、消化周期普遍转向供不应求,土地消化周期相对较短,短期内不会出现供应井喷,房企无论是基于前景判断还是补仓需要,二线城市如南京、武汉、杭州、成都、苏州等城市未来的土地成交也将显著上涨,土地拍卖竞争程度甚至可能出现看齐一线城市之势。相关的主题文章:

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