Temporary storage from direct sales to inventory open corn Tour-visualboyadvance

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Temporary storage of corn to open from directional marketing agency 02 month tour of 22 days of business inventory dispatch on February 16th, the State Grain Bureau issued "on please pay close attention to recommend to participate in the storage of grain processing enterprises extended sales orientation, make a preliminary list of the letter" years ago rumors for several days of temporary storage from directional sales rumors finally made new progress, lead the market pay attention to. Although the scope, directional sales price, specific start time, where the quality details are unknown, but the document is issued "has taken a substantial step", and released the next day from the file of corn and corn starch futures prices fell sharply, also see the effect of the policy has been rapid divergence. This is undoubtedly the corn stock market to the most serious situation in the year, in the face of the policy of structural adjustment, to the inventory of the environment, the market mentality overall bearish, any point are likely to affect the wind sways grass, market sensitive nerve. About the scope of directional sales. According to the current national corn grain inventory year structure and other factors considered, expects the first sales to participate in the 2012 annual grain orientation of northeast corn as the biggest possibility, when the temporary storage cumulative total acquisition of 11 million 700 thousand tons, including 9 million 270 thousand tons of corn by way of transfer through the East north provinces, distributed storage in North China, Southern China and other parts of grain storage. In the past, North China has always been the "blind spot" of policy grain delivery, and whether the directional sales of North China will be brought into a hot spot. From the market understanding, the North China deep-processing and feed enterprises have participated in directional sales declaration, the directional sales range is greater than the market expectations. About directional selling price. In 2012, the purchase price of corn (three tons of grain) was 2100~2140 yuan per ton in Northeast China, and the inter provincial price difference was 20 tons. But at present, it is difficult to consider the purchase and storage cost effectively, and how to effectively inventory or policy issues is most concerned about. For the 2012 annual output from directional sales prices, the market is expected in 1500 yuan tons, the actual price will lower later, currently have no way to judge. If the accounting by 1500 yuan per ton, plus freight and other expenses, loss, a library, a conservative estimate of the bid price to factory to 1600 yuan tons, in the Shandong market as an example, the new grain processing enterprises into priced at 1800 yuan ton or even lower, 200 yuan per ton can smooth the gap between the quality of spread and really attract all kinds of food companies and is still in doubt. About the realization time of directional sales. The sales orientation is still in the primary stage of collecting information, later need to experience the examination and approval, the actual operation of a series of operations, sales orientation when to enter the substantive stage of operation, when can the grain into the food company, is still unknown. On grain quality. If the sales orientation from the 2012 annual corn started, while grain storage is nearly 4 years, this part of the grain quality how, what food is the biggest problem subject to use. From the already learned of the situation, this part is not starving for all kinds of food company general, duck feed and alcohol (including fuel ethanol) enterprises may be the main subject of digestion. Discussion on the present situation of domestic corn market

临储陈粮定向销售开启玉米去库存之旅   生意社02月22日讯   2月16日,国家粮食局发布“关于请抓紧推荐参与超期储存粮食定向销售加工企业初步名单的函”,使年前盛传多日的临储陈粮定向销售传闻终于有了新的进展,引发市场关注。虽然目前有关定向销售的范围、具体价格、启动时间、粮源质量等细节均未知,但该文件的发布算是“迈出了实质性的一步”,而从文件发布次日玉米及玉米淀粉期货价格大幅下跌,也可见政策效应已快速发散。   今年无疑是玉米市场去库存形势最为严峻的一年,在政策面调结构、去库存的大环境下,市场心态整体偏空,任何一点风吹草动,都有可能牵动市场敏感的神经。   关于定向销售范围。结合目前国家玉米库存粮源年份结构等因素综合考虑,预计首批参与定向销售的粮源以2012年产东北玉米可能性为最大,当年临储累计收购总量1170万吨,其中927万吨玉米通过跨省移库方式转出东北,分散存储于华北、华南等各地粮库储存。以往华北地区一直是政策粮投放的“盲区”,此次定向销售华北会否纳入成为一大热点。从市场了解情况来看,华北深加工及饲料企业均已参与定向销售申报,此次定向销售范围大于市场预期。   关于定向销售价格。2012年东北临储玉米收购价格(三等粮)2100~2140元 吨,省际价差20元 吨。但目前定向销售价格已经很难有效顾及收购及存储成本,如何能够有效去库存或是政策层面最关心的问题。对于2012年产陈粮定向销售价格,目前市场预期在1500元 吨以下,后期实际价格会否更低,目前无从判断。如果按1500元 吨核算,加上出库费用、损耗、运费等,保守估计竞购到厂价格要在1600元 吨以上,以山东市场为例,目前深加工企业新粮进厂价在1800元 吨左右甚至更低,200元 吨价差能否抹平质量的差距并真正吸引各类用粮企业竞购,仍旧存疑。   关于定向销售实现时间。目前定向销售仍处于采集信息的初级阶段,后期需要经历审核、批准、实际运作等一系列操作,定向销售具体何时能够进入实质性操作阶段,粮源何时才能流入用粮企业,目前仍是未知数。   关于粮源质量。若定向销售从2012年产玉米开始启动,则粮源存储距今已有近4个年头,此部分粮质量如何、究竟哪些用粮主体能够使用是最大问题。从已经了解到的情况来看,该部分粮源并不能为各类用粮企业通用,鸭料及酒精(含燃料乙醇)企业可能是其主要消化主体。   从目前国内玉米市场现状来看,东北临储逾8000万吨入库量是短期内市场最大支撑因素,而基本面方面来自华北、西北的供应压力释放、后期进口玉米的陆续到货、政策粮降价投放市场及养殖存栏等则构成一系列打压心态及价格走势的利空因素。   综合来看,今年后市玉米价格承压下行压力凸显。   (文章来源:粮油市场报,作者:焦阳) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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