Why is Japan loose and loose, but not China-www.111kfc.com

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Why is Japan loose and loose, but not China? The Sina Financial opinion leader (WeChat public number kopleader) columnist Zhou Wenyuan [micro-blog] is rooted in the monetary structure of its residents’ assets has been adjusted to complete, the market mechanism of capital regulation liberalization makes its exchange rate elasticity better. China, as a capital controlled country, has only just begun to adjust its monetary structure. If it continues to depreciate, the impact on domestic assets will be terrible. Why Japan can be self willed and loose? A few days ago, the Bank of Japan [micro-blog] to Miami to bake the governor of the Central Bank of a certain big idea at the Davos forum. Here’s what happened: "according to Bloomberg, faced with China’s economic situation, many foreign officials offer advice and suggestions. The establishment of a new and comprehensive control of the capital, within China over $10 trillion scale economy on the wall; Japan’s central bank governor Kuroda Higashihiko in Davos last week, the world economic forum’s activities on the implementation of recommendations Chinese capital controls to restrain capital outflows." There is no bottom line, although the Central Bank of a big country think so, you can not shake out in advance. Talking about the bottom line of the Japanese central bank, hey hey! Other people’s homes are called QE, and their family is called QQE! These two days, the neon stars next door made headlines again. In January 29th, the Bank of Japan announced that negative interest rates had been introduced since February 16th, and zero interest rates were applicable to statutory reserves, while negative interest rates were applied to excess reserve accounts. The Central Bank of Japan said that as soon as possible the implementation of negative interest rates and QQE, negative interest rate policy will be implemented simultaneously with the QQE initiatives, if necessary additional measures or will further reduce interest rates. The central bank will not continue to set the lower limit of the yield of Japanese bonds when buying Japanese bonds, traded funds and real estate investment trusts; the future will adopt a three tier system for the current account, including positive interest rates, zero interest rates and negative interest rates. Policy news came out, the rapid depreciation of the yen, the dollar yen short term soared, skyrocketing nearly 300 points, directly breaking the 121 mark, the Japanese 5 year treasury bond yields fell to record lows -0.025%. With the devaluation of the yen, the global risk asset prices have risen, the Japanese stock index instantly pulled up 3 percentage points, and finally rose 2.8%, the night disk of Europe, the United States stock markets and oil, large industrial prices have risen. Why the Bank of Japan can continue to make a broad, lower interest rates and active devaluation, as the world’s second largest economy Chinese is very careful? Why did the Japanese Central Bank actively devalue the yen, while China is worried about the impact of devaluation? Japan’s foreign exchange reserves is only $1 trillion and 230 billion, $3 trillion and 300 billion Chinese; Japan 2014 current account deficit of $128 billion 500 million, while the year China trade surplus of $284 billion; China the latest economic growth rate of 6.9%, Japan’s zero growth; economic fundamentals Chinese was significantly better than that of japan. Why? From the point of view of national debt, in China and Japan are domestically oriented countries, foreign debts are relatively small. China’s foreign currency foreign debt balance (including SDR distribution) is 51157 billion yuan people.

为啥日本能任性宽松中国却不行?   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 周文渊[微博]   根源在于其居民资产货币结构已经调整完成,资本管制放开的市场化运作机制使得其汇率弹性较好。而中国作为资本管制国家,居民的货币结构调整才刚刚开始,如果持续贬值,境内资产受到的冲击将非常可怕。 为什么日本可以任性宽松?   前几日日本央行[微博]行长在达沃斯论坛上给正在热火上烤的某大国央行出了一主意。事情是这样的:“据彭博社报道,面对中国经济现状,很多外国官员献计献策。建立新的、全面的资本控制,把中国规模超10万亿美元的经济置于围墙之内;日本央行行长黑田东彦上周在达沃斯世界经济论坛的活动上建议中国实施资本管制来抑制资金外流。”   是不是很没有底线,虽然某大国央行心里是这么想的,你也不能提前给抖出来啊。说起日本央行的没底线,嘿嘿!别人家的宽松都叫QE,他们家的宽松叫QQE,知道厉害了吧!   这两天隔壁的霓虹国又上头条了。1月29日日本央行宣布从2月16日起开始实施负利率,零利率适用于法定准备金;负利率适用于超额准备金账户。   日本央行表示,尽可能快的实施负利率和QQE,负利率政策将与QQE举措同步实施,如有必要采取额外的举措或将进一步降息。央行购买日本公债、上市交易基金和不动产投资信托的速度不变,将继续不设定所购日本国债收益率的下限;未来对经常账户采用三层体系,包括正利率、零利率和负利率。政策消息一出来,日元迅速贬值,美元 日元短线飙升,暴涨近300点,直接升破121关口、日本5年期国债收益率降至纪录低点-0.025%。   伴随日元贬值,全球风险资产价格均出现上涨,日本股指瞬间拉升3个百分点,最后涨2.8%,夜盘的欧洲、美国股市和石油、大宗工业品价格均出现上涨。   为什么日本央行可以不断地做量宽,降低利率并主动贬值,而作为全球第二大经济体的中国却如履薄冰?为什么日本央行主动贬值日元,而中国却担心货币贬值冲击?日本的外汇储备只有1.23万亿美元,中国有3.3万亿美元;日本2014年经常账户贸易逆差为1285亿美元,而中国当年贸易顺差为2840亿美元;中国最新经济增长速度为6.9%,日本为零增长;中国经济基本面明显好于日本。为什么?   从债务国家来看,中日两国均是内债为主的国家,外债规模都比较小。中国外币外债余额(含SDR分配)为51157亿元人民币(等值8042亿美元)占53%;在外币登记外债余额中,美元债务占80%,日元债务占4%,欧元债务占7%;中国短期外债余额占67%,以此比例测算,中国短期美元外债规模在6000亿美元左右,考虑到3.3万亿的美元外汇储备,中国短期对外偿付能力有很强的保障,不存在对外偿付危机,按说中国央行不应该担心货币贬值。   但是现实是中国央行一直在稳定贬值预期,可见问题不是出在外债上,而是居民资产的币种结构上。   虽然不少可比的数据中国都优于日本,但中国有一项数据却与日本存在十万八千里的差距。我们看看日本国际投资头寸净资产,2014年这一数据为366.85万亿日元,折合超过3万亿美元的对外净资产头寸,更为重要的是日本国际投资头寸净资产占日本国内M2的比重从1999年的13%连续上涨至2014年的41%,也就是说日本居民的大部分资产都转换为境外资产,其货币币种结构已经全球化。   而中国居民币种结构则不是那么完美。首先来看,官方公布的国际投资头寸表,截止2014年中国国际投资净头寸1.77万亿美元,对外净资产占M2的比例为8.3%,远低于日本的比例。   另外一个测算办法是通过分项数据计算。最重要的境外资产是央行持有的外汇储备,目前预计有3.3万亿美元;其次是国际直接投资净头寸,以2014年为例来华直接投资为1203亿美元,中国对外投资为1345亿美元,对外净投资为142美元,当然这是年度流量,从存量来看,由于对外投资是最近几年才开始加大力度,因此直接投资存量上来看,对外头寸应该是负的。   第三是国内居民可以计量的外币存款,截止最新的数据为6272亿美元。如果不计算民间的外币资产,储备测算中国持有的对外资产为4万亿美元左右,目前我国M2为139.2万亿人民币,折合21.1万亿美元;外币资产占比为20%左右;如果把对外负债计算进来,测算净对外资产占比(外债总规模为1.5万亿美元)为11.8%,该比例明显也明显低于日本的41%。   更为核心的一点对外资产的持有结构不太合理,目前央行持有了绝对多数的对外资产(外汇储备为3.3万亿美元),居民的外部资产仅仅有6272亿美元;   目前人民币存款有135.7万亿,如果有比较强的贬值预期,即使不考虑资本流出,境内居民户将货币从人民币转换成外币,即使考虑10%左右的比例,那也是2万亿美元左右的冲击,即对外资产持有主体从央行转换为居民户,央行外汇储备下降2万亿美元至1.3万亿美元,居民户持有的外汇资产上升至2.6万亿左右;   虽然看起来绝对量没有损失,但是第一个非常现实的冲击,央行层面对于短期外债的覆盖快速下降,国家可能面临外债违约担心,外部信心会迅速下降;   第二个冲击是内部的货币紧缩将造成境内资产崩塌,2万亿美元资产的转换意味着13万亿人民币资产的回笼,央行要大规模对冲才能稳住资产价格。   行文至此,答案应该比较清晰了。日本的安倍经济学为什么可以任性宽松,持续贬值?根源在于其居民资产货币结构已经调整完成,资本管制放开的市场化运作机制使得其汇率弹性较好。   而中国作为资本管制国家,居民的货币结构调整才刚刚开始,如果持续贬值,境内资产受到的冲击将非常可怕,而且对外偿付能力也会迅速下降。因此中国当务之急是迅速贬值人民币至较为合理的位置后,尽快稳定住预期,人民币并不具备持续贬值的基础,拿出1998年的魄力和决心,全年稳定在6.8的位置将可以为改革和经济企稳赢得时间。   (本文作者介绍:国泰君安证券固定收益业务资管管理人、固定收益部研究主管。)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章:

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